Cererea pentru combustibili fosili se preconizează că nu va reveni niciodată la nivelul maxim înregistrat în anul 2019
O nouă analiză realizată de Boston Consulting Group dezvăluie faptul că situația de criză provocată de COVID-19 a adus cu sine o scădere a cererii de combustibili fosili, ce se poate prelungi pe perioada următorului deceniu, făcând ca o revenire la maximul din 2019 să fie puțin probabilă.
În timp ce declinul economic, pe termen scurt, provocat de pandemia globală COVID-19 a devenit deja vizibil, criza poate avea un impact semnificativ pe termen lung asupra piețelor de energie globale, se arată într-o analiză recentă realizată de Boston Consulting Group (BCG). În special, este așteptată o scădere a cererii de combustibili fosili față de maximele înregistrate anul trecut, conform raportului BCG, intitulat Am Depășit Vârful Cererii Pentru Combustibilii Fosili?
BCG analizează cererea de energie din viitor și mixul de energie de-a lungul a trei scenarii economice, reprezentând recuperări în formă de V, U și L. Este foarte probabil ca actuala criză să încetinească semnificativ creșterea cererii globale de combustibili fosili în următorul deceniu. Dacă recuperarea economică mai lentă ar fi însoțită de o accelerare moderată în tranziția de la combustibili fosili la surse regenerabile, așa cum sugerează măsurile de „recuperare ecologică”, introduse în prezent în multe țări, cererea nu va mai depăși niciodată nivelurile din 2019.
Într-un astfel de scenariu, impactul ar fi diferit în funcție de tipul de marfă și de regiune. Cărbunele este combustibilul fosil la care este cel mai puțin probabil să se întrevadă o recuperare, se așteaptă BCG. Între timp, probabil că cererea de gaz natural își va relua calea de creștere, iar traiectoria petrolului se va situa undeva între celelalte două.
“Este posibil să fi ajuns acum la un moment de cotitură critic pentru piețele de energie. Impactul economic provocat de pandemia de coronavirus, creșterea economică din ce în ce mai puțin intensivă energetic și investițiile continue în energie sustenabilă, toate acestea împreună, afectează foarte mult cererea de combustibil fosil,” a declarat Bogdan Belciu, Partener la BCG. “Acest lucru ar schimba fundamental realitatea pentru multe companii de energie, mult mai devreme decât se așteptau,” a continuat dl. Belciu.
În funcție de scenariul de recuperare, marjele companiilor de energie și piața de capital vor fi sub presiune. Acestea vor trebui să reducă costurile și să sporească lupta în ciuda obstacolelor întâmpinate, având pe termen mai lung prețuri mai mici.
În același timp, vor trebui să accelereze eforturile pentru a-și transforma portofoliile de afaceri, operațiunile și investițiile.
În lupta împotriva schimbărilor climatice, atingerea sfârșitului cererii „maximului de combustibili fosili” nu este un motiv de satisfacție. „Cererea maximă de combustibili fosili poate fi în spatele nostru, dar nu neapărat din motivele corecte,” spune Bogdan Belciu. “Dacă nu ne transformăm fundamental economia, emisiile proiectate vor rămâne incompatibile cu efortul de reducere a încălzirii globale cu 1,5 °C sau 2 °C. Între timp, un mediu cu prețuri scăzute pentru combustibilii fosili nu va facilita această transformare.”
O copie a analizei poate fi descarcată de aici.
Despre Boston Consulting Group
Boston Consulting Group este partenerul liderilor din afaceri și societate pentru a-i ajuta să facă față celor mai mari provocări și pentru a descoperi cele mai mari oportunități. Compania BCG a fost pionierul domeniului strategiei de afaceri, aceasta fiind fondată în anul 1963. Astăzi, aducem clienților noștri o transformare totală – care inspiră schimbări complexe, permițând organizațiilor să crească, să aibă un avantaj competitiv care să conducă la un impact liniar.
Pentru a avea succes, organizațiile trebuie să îmbine capacitățile digitale cu cele umane. Echipele noastre globale aduc expertiză, competențe funcționale și o serie de perspective care duc la crearea schimbărilor. BCG oferă soluții prin consultanța managementului de vârf, împreună cu tehnologie și design, proiecte corporative și digitale – și scopuri de afaceri. Avem un model unic de colaborare la nivelul companiei acoperind nivelurile organizației clientului, generând rezultate care să permită clienților noștri să se dezvolte.
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